Before the NBA season tipped off, Matt Harris and I gave our projections for who we believed would earn some individual hardware as well as who we believed would make the playoffs. With the season set to resume from the All-Star break, it feels like the perfect time to reflect upon those award race predictions and make adjustments accordingly.
Most Valuable Player
Preseason Prediction: Luka Doncic
Current Prediction: Joel Embiid (+250)
The Most Valuable Player award is as wide open as it’s been in years, and Luka Doncic still has a very real chance to win the award as it appears Dallas has finally hit its stride this season. However, I’m giving the nod to Joel Embiid to win the regular season’s most coveted award. With reports circulating in the offseason that Embiid was altering his training to become more consistent and dominant down the stretch late in games, there was plenty of intrigue surrounding Embiid and Philadelphia to begin the season.
We’ve seen this team fade in and out of contention throughout the course of the past few seasons, so I was skeptical to hype up Embiid before I saw him with my own eyes. The reports appear to ring true, though, as the Sixers find themselves atop the Eastern Conference at the break, and their cornerstone big man has been every bit as dominant as advertised. Embiid’s averaging 30.2 points per game—good for second in the league behind Bradley Beal’s outrageous 32.9 PPG—along with 11.6 rebounds per game, 3.3 assists per game, all while having the second-highest efficiency rating in the league at 31.1, only behind Nikola Jokic. Embiid has also delivered where it matters most—primetime—leading the Sixers to head-turning wins over teams like the Lakers and Jazz with the nation watching. Depending on how the Nuggets fare the rest of the season, Nikola Jokic could swoop in and steal this trophy away, but I expect Embiid to continue his dominance as we head towards the postseason.
Defensive Player of the Year
Preseason Prediction: Bam Adebayo
Current Prediction: Rudy Gobert (-190)
As fun as the Jazz slander is and always will be, it’s hard to go against the Frenchman when looking at this award. Gobert has already won this award twice, back in 2018 and 2019, and with the Jazz atop the entire league, he deserves as much credit as anyone else on the team. Aside from steals, Gobert entered the All-Star break at the top of pretty much every defensive statistic measured. He’s ninth in defensive plus-minus, sixth in win shares (including first on the Jazz), second in blocks per game and defensive rating, third in defensive rebound percentage, fourth in block percentage, and first in defensive win shares. If Donovan Mitchell is the catalyst for the Jazz on the offensive end, Gobert is just as vital to the team’s success on the defensive front. This also shows in the team’s defensive numbers, which rank fourth overall while also allowing the fourth-fewest points per game at 107.8. Players such as Myles Turner and Ben Simmons will give Gobert a run for his money when the season resumes, but it’s hard to catch a player that has been so dominant and instrumental to his team’s success like Gobert.
Coach of the Year
Preseason Prediction: Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns
Current Prediction: Monty Williams, Phoenix Suns (+600)
Quin Snyder of the Utah Jazz is the frontrunner for this award as of now, but the work Monty Williams has done in Phoenix cannot be understated. The Suns are currently second place in the Western Conference, and with 24 wins, they are tied for the second-most wins in a season in Phoenix since the 2015-2016 season. The addition of Chris Paul helped carry over the momentum from a perfect 8-0 bubble performance, but Monty deserves much of the credit for the success of this team. There have been many teams in NBA history with more talent than the Suns’ current roster, but because of a lack of culture and strong leadership, they fared far worse than the Suns have been performing to this point. It’s evident that every player has bought into Monty’s system and culture and while preseason expectations were high in Phoenix, not many people could’ve envisioned the position the Suns are in at this moment. If the Suns finish the regular season as a three seed or higher in a loaded Western Conference, Monty Williams absolutely deserves as much praise as possible, including the Coach of the Year nod.
Rookie of the Year
Preseason Prediction: James Wiseman, Golden State Warriors
Current Prediction: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (-455)
Wiseman initially looked like a strong contender for this award before he went down with a sprained left wrist at the end of January. Now it appears like this award will be a two-way contest between Sacramento’s Tyrese Haliburton and Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball. My heart is telling me to go with Haliburton here because of his impact on the Kings and his mature decision-making at such a young age, but it’s hard to ignore the development and excitement that LaMelo has brought to the Charlotte Hornets. I have to admit that I wasn’t too keen on LaMelo during the pre-draft process and I thought his lack of defensive effort would be a hindrance to his game, but after initially taking on a limited bench role and receiving some deserved criticism from Hornets head coach, James Borrego, the third overall pick of the 2020 NBA draft has burst onto the scene. LaMelo leads all rookies in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and steals per game—making him the first player in the last 60 seasons to lead rookies in those four stat categories heading into the All-Star break, per Elias Sports Bureau. Alongside Haliburton, Ball has also been named the Rookie of the Month in January and February with no one else coming close in the Eastern Conference. LaMelo’s stellar play has made the Hornets one of the most exciting teams to watch in the NBA and has Charlotte in position to make their first playoff appearance since 2016. This also gives LaMelo the edge over Haliburton; despite Haliburton’s stellar play and smart decision-making, the Kings are only 14-22 and 13th in the Western Conference.
Sixth Man of the Year
Preseason Prediction: None
Current Prediction: Jordan Clarkson (-450)
The Jazz are poised to lock up quite a few individual awards for their play this season, but no accolade seems quite as certain as Jordan Clarkson being named this year’s sixth man. The 28-year-old has been red hot off the bench for the Jazz this season, averaging a career-high 17.9 points per game while shooting nearly 45% from the floor. After an up-and-down start to his career—which included stints on the Lakers, Raptors and Cavaliers—Clarkson has seemed to have carved out a nice role as the go-to guy on a deep Jazz bench that consists of Joe Ingles, Georges Niang and Derrick Favors. Other contenders for this award include Eric Gordon, Chris Boucher, Terrence Ross and Montrezl Harrell, who have each done a stellar job when called upon by their team, but they haven’t had quite the impact that Clarkson has had—including a 40-point performance against the Sixers in February. For a team to start out as dominant as the Jazz have, you need more than just your top guys to perform. With players like Clarkson performing at this high of level, the Jazz look to continue their surprising push for a title this season.
Most Improved Player
Preseason Prediction: Christian Wood
Current Prediction: Zach LaVine (+2800)
I’m going with a dark horse candidate for a variety of reasons. The first being that Christian Wood hasn’t played since February 4, when he sprained his ankle playing against the Memphis Grizzlies. Prior to this, Wood was making me look like a genius with his performances, averaging 22 points per game, 10.2 rebounds per game, and leading the Rockets to what looked like a promising season even with the trade of James Harden. The latest report on Wood’s injury came right at the end of February when he said he believed his ankle was around 80% healthy and he was hoping to return before the break. The fact that he hasn’t returned can most likely be chalked up to the organization being cautious with their breakout big man, since the team is in the midst of a 13-game losing streak with their once-promising playoff hopes dwindling. This cautious approach makes sense, but it could mean the Rockets ease Wood back into playing, making it tough for him to make up ground.
Since Wood’s injury, the frontrunner for this award has been Jerami Grant of the Detroit Pistons. Grant is having a stellar year, averaging over 23 points per game while also averaging a career-high in rebounds, assists and three-point percentage. However, my issue with Grant as a frontrunner for this award is the team he’s currently on. Team performance doesn’t typically hold as much weight for the Most Improved Player award as it does for the MVP, but the Detroit Pistons are downright bad. Not only are they bad, but they lack any sense of direction and any reason for optimism at this moment. Yes, Jerami Grant is having a very solid season, and his numbers have jumped significantly from the rest of his career, but at this moment in time, being the best player on the Detroit Pistons isn’t the most riveting competition out there. It would be like if LeBron voluntarily went down to the G-League and was dominating. It would be way more telling if LeBron was the third or fourth-best player on his team than if he was averaging 50 a game. Jerami Grant is a player that was poised to break out eventually and he had carved out a nice role for himself on the Nuggets in the bubble, but with the losses of Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, combined with the odds and ends that Detroit consistently puts on the floor, I’m not entirely sure the Most Improved Player award belongs to Grant.
This leaves us with a variety of names who have exceeded expectations up to this point, including Julius Randle, Jaylen Brown, Chris Boucher and Zach LaVine. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer when you look at these names, but I believe LaVine is most deserving of this award. First and foremost, we can start with the simple argument. LaVine is the leader of a team that is heavily exceeding expectations and is in position to at least take one of the play-in spots in the East. The Bulls are only two games out of the fifth spot in the East and are bringing exciting basketball back to the city of Chicago. LaVine is also is putting up career numbers in points per game, assists per game, and rebounds per game while taking his efficiency rating from his career mark of 16.8 (close to the league average of 15) all the way up to 22.8—good for 21st in the league this season. Getting more in-depth with my argument, it is important to look at how LaVine has altered his career trajectory this season. The past few seasons, he’s been a good player putting up good numbers on a bad team—just like Jerami Grant. During the 2019 season, LaVine averaged 23.7 points per game and in 2020, he averaged 25.5—making LaVine a really good talent on the surface. However, the jump he’s made as a shooter and a number-one scoring option this season needs to be recognized. While LaVine has put up solid scoring numbers in the past, his transition to a prolific scorer and leader is a tremendous reason why the Bulls are in the position they’re in. This season—LaVine’s first as an All-Star—he is shooting 53% from the floor, 44% from beyond the arc, and 86% from the free-throw line. He’s 24th in the league in field goal percentage, eighth in the league in true shooting percentage, and 11th in the league in effective field goal percentage. In terms of perimeter-based players who have a usage rate as high as LaVine does, these numbers essentially lead the league. Most players higher than him in those shooting categories either don’t share the volume of shots that LaVine has or they aren’t shooting from very far away. The transition Zach LaVine has made to lethal scorer and franchise leader makes him more than deserving of this award, and if these numbers continue, this is only the beginning for him.
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