Tier 1: The Best of the Best
1. Patrick Mahomes
He's the best quarterback in football by a wide margin. His traits are unparalleled: cross-body slinging, elite pocket presence, mind-boggling accuracy, the strongest arm I've ever laid eyes on outside of Josh Allen, and the ability to just make you gasp aloud. He's the standout. Always has been, likely always will be. The only concern with Mahomes is whether or not he can sustain his production if either Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill is sidelined with an injury. Can Mahomes do what Brady did for years and elevate Mecole Hardman into a Wes Welker or Julian Edelman-level player?
2. Aaron Rodgers
The MVP of 2021 made headlines all off-season. Breaking news, people: the off-season is over, and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are going to rip people's heads off this season. Jeopardy and Shailene Woodley mean nothing now. Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, MVS, Lazard, and Aaron Jones mean everything now. There's literally nothing more devastating to opposing defenses than a pissed off Aaron Rodgers.
If he goes out this season and wins an MVP and a Lombardi trophy, then he should just be named emperor of the Green Bay Packers for eternity. If I had any rooting interest in them or had any stock in the organization, that's what I would be lobbying for. This guy's showed zero signs of slowing down and clearly has an intense love for the game still. Why not let him dictate everything? Because he's a bit of a drama-queen? And the other billionaire owners aren't? Please, just because he's in the spotlight more often than them doesn't mean he'd be less successful in their roles. I'm genuinely suggesting this. Rodgers for Emperor of Wisconsin.
3. Tom Brady
Timeless Tom. Need I say more?
Tier 2: Day One Franchise Changers
4. Josh Allen
The strongest arm I've ever seen. Not just when it comes to throwing the ball the furthest distance, but the velocity and breathtaking zip that he puts on the ball when squeezing it into seem routes to Stefon Diggs or slants to Cole Beasley. I wouldn't be surprised if he incidentally broke a referee's entire rib cage on a misplaced throw this season. The biggest question with Josh is if he'll continue his all-time progression from last season (where he made the biggest single season jump in completion percentage in the modern era), or take a step back into the 2018-2019 reality (when he had the worst completion percentage in the league two years in a row). Either way, Buffalo's going to be appointment-viewing television this year.
5. Russell Wilson
There are few holes, if any, in Russell Wilson's game. His only downfall has been the play-callers who have drawn up stagnant equations to seemingly comprehensible defensive schemes. Last year, the Seahawks tore defenses with one-high-safety apart. Once defenses realized this, they started running two-high defenses with shell concepts that prevented big plays to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. We can expect Shane Waldron, Seattle's new play-caller who hails from the almighty McVay coaching tree, to incorporate some more modern death-by-a-million-papercuts type schemes.
6. Dak Prescott
Is Dak good enough to drag a below-average defense and an all-world offense to a division championship? The answer should be simple, but it's perhaps the most complicated question of the 2021 season. I highly doubt these questions would exist if it weren't for his injury concerns, but Dak's going to have to put up 5,000 yards and 45 TDs if the Cowboys want to clinch a playoff berth this season. That might be hard to do with the dinosaur Mike McCarthy being a girthy clog on the sidelines, but Dak has all of the traits you'd want from a modern quarterback on America's team. He's tough, quick, clear-headed, accurate and has command over the offense. The Cowboys are going to be, as always, one of the most fascinating teams in the league this season.
7. Lamar Jackson
There's no reason that Lamar should be outside of anybody's top ten quarterbacks list. He's as dynamic of a playmaker as the NFL has ever seen. Greg Roman just needs to start thinking of him as more of a point guard and less as a runningback. He's restricted Lamar's growth as a passer the last couple of years by running dated concepts in the passing game. Part of that is because Willie Snead has been his best outside weapon and Marquise Brown hasn't lived up to the hype, but there's still no excuse for the lack of progression in Baltimore's passing game. Especially when they have one of the two most dominant rushing attacks in all of football, play action should be their best friend, not just another portion of their offensive repertoire. Lamar struggles with accuracy at times, but he's had more flashes than he has disappointments. I firmly believe that he has the ability to be a top-five quarterback again this season.
8. Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert's head coach last season was Anthony Lynn. Let me put that into perspective really quick: Anthony Lynn, a former NFL running-back who seems like a great guy by all accounts, was the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers last season and has now been demoted to the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator. The Detroit Lions are not going to try to win football games this season. Their hiring of Lynn as their play-caller was intentional. Okay, we good now? Awesome, because Justin Herbert threw for 4,300 yards and 31 TDs last season. If you thought last season was the flow-god explosion, then wait until he gets a real play-caller like Joe Lombardi on the sidelines.
Tier 3: All-Pro Caliber Tossers
9. Ryan Tannehill
The engine to Tennessee's offense is Derrick Henry, but the driver is Ryan Tannehill. He's been one of the ten best quarterbacks in all of football for the past three seasons. How will his game translate in an offense that isn't run by Arthur Smith? That's one of the many questions in Tennessee this season. Will Tannehill be able to get the most out of what is, for my money's worth, the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL? He's been nothing but consistent as their starter. Someone who can make plays with his feet if all else fails, but doesn't rush breaking the pocket. He may not be as entertaining as Mahomes, as accurate as Rodgers, or as chaotic as Wilson, but he's an even-keeled assassin that rarely makes the wrong decision.
10. Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield is a spark plug come to life. He has one of the strongest arms in the league, supreme confidence that can only be found in 10x All-Pro quarterbacks, and sneaky athleticism despite his measurables. Kevin Stefanski knows how to get the most out of a quarterback, and I only anticipate Baker's progression to accelerate this season with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. returning to the fold. Baker's biggest weakness is himself. Sometimes he overestimates his other-worldly arm talent a little too much, but Stefanski managed to reel that sporadic tendency in last season. We'll see if Baker can crack the 4,000 yard/40 TD mark this season; that'll be the true mark of a true top-tier quarterback.
11. Matthew Stafford
For the first time in forever, Matthew Stafford is going to be a household name. He's the trendiest pick for MVP this year. He's Sean McVay's juiciest fantasy come to life. And he's going to a Los Angeles Rams offensive unit that is blessed with weapons all over the field. He has the kind of arm versatility that people ooze over and the know-how to make up for a lack of athleticism considering he's 33 years old. I'm just as excited to see how much he can elevate LA's ceiling, and whether or not he can lead a team to a Lombardi trophy if the right talent is around him.
12. Matt Ryan
We're only a half-decade removed from Matt Ryan winning the MVP and leading Atlanta to a Super Bowl loss. Doesn't that feel like forever ago? In quarterback years, that's practically nothing. Statistically, Ryan's yet to even come close to those 2016 numbers where he averaged a league-leading 9.3 yards per attempt. That's to be expected when you go from Kyle Shanahan calling your plays to somebody not named Kyle Shanahan calling your plays. It took five years, but Atlanta has finally found another dynamic play-caller in Arthur Smith to take over the reins. Will Ryan still be able to produce without his Julio lined up on the outside? How often will he target Kyle Pitts? Will Calvin Ridley break every feasible receiving record in the first 17 game season in NFL history? There are a lot of questions in Atlanta, but Ryan's proved time and time again that he's someone you can turn to for answers.
13. Derek Carr
Derek Carr is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL. He's produced at an above-average rate with below-average weapons and extinct playcallers. Does he come off as a minor douche? Sure, but what quarterback outside of Lamar Jackson doesn't at times? I'm curious as to how we'll look back at Derek Carr's career once he's retired. Will we think of him in the same vein as Philip Rivers? His career isn't dramatic enough. What about Alex Smith? He's more explosive than that. He has plenty of traits that you'd want from a franchise quarterback — a powerful arm that can zip the ball into tight windows with accuracy, quick feet, and an excellent knowledge of the game. I may be the only non-Raiders fan that's cheering for Derek Carr this season.
Tier 4: The Next Generation Consoles
14. Kyler Murray
This speedy little demon is one of the most electric players in football. I could watch Kyler every day for the rest of my life and never regret a moment of it. His style of play is so aesthetically pleasing: his rocket release, squared-shoulders stance, and the way he uses every muscle in his body to launch the ball to Hopkins on a comeback route. But the issue in Arizona isn't style, it's substance. Can Kyler take the leap and become a more efficient quarterback? Or is he doomed as long as Kliff Kingsbury is on the sidelines?
15. Joe Burrow
Burrow's returning from an injury where his entire knee was obliterated. His offensive line hasn't improved in the slightest, and he's surrounded by tantalizing, but overrated weapons. Burrow's best talent is getting the ball out quickly, which will be a necessity in Zac Taylor's offensive scheme that favors empty personnel sets. Burrow's production this season will be a direct reflection of how quickly Chase, Higgins, and Boyd can get separation from man coverage and find open spaces in zone defenses. He's a supremely talented slinger whose season was derailed by injuries, which should lessen his mobility, but his arm talent remains immaculate.
16. Trevor Lawrence
"Peyton Manning with legs" might be a stretch for the Clemson standout. If anything, he most resembles his mutual Tiger alumnus Deshaun Watson in terms of playstyle. He was an overwhelming athlete in college, even amongst top-tier talents like Alabama and Ohio State, but that won't be the case in the NFL. He'll have to rely upon his accuracy, velocity, and precision — all of which are pinpoint. Where he'll struggle in the beginning is with his field awareness because there's naturally so much handholding in college football between offensive coordinators and their quarterbacks.
17. Justin Fields
There's nothing you can say to me that will change my mind on Fields being, far and away, the second-best quarterback in this draft class. He was thought of as the second overall prospect all season long and did nothing to diminish his value. The fact that he was the fourth quarterback selected is the greatest thing that has ever happened to me as a football fan. He's a fusion of Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. He has an elite combination of athleticism and fundamentals that few players right now can even claim they have. If Chicago can build even a mediocre offensive line in front of him and sustain above-average talent on the outside, then they'll be a playoff contender for years to come.
18. Tua Tagovailoa
Listen, last year was tough for Tua. He was coming off of hip surgery, coming into an offense that wasn't designed for him, and was a rookie quarterback in the NFL during a global pandemic. Things weren't supposed to go his way. He didn't have a Keenan Allen to rely on. I anticipate that he'll have a major bounce-back year and demonstrate why he was thought of as the number one overall pick at one point.
19. Zach Wilson
This little-boy-bodied Mormon can sling the rock. The ball pops out of his hand so beautifully that I know Trent Dilfer is somewhere out there tying down his high school quarterback and screaming in his face, "YOU COULD NEVER DO THAT! YOU DON'T HAVE THE TRAITS. DO YOU HEAR ME, YOU PUNK BITCH?!" And he's right. Few 20-something-year-olds can wheel and deal like Wilson can. This year's going to be about limiting mistakes and making constant progression in the weight room as well as on the field.
20. Jalen Hurts
Will Jalen's brain be able to keep up with his Greek God body? The dude squats roughly 600 pounds but struggles with hitting slightly covered receivers on flag routes. Despite Philadelphia being one of the least inspiring teams in the NFL this season, my eyes are going to be glued to the screen when Hurts is on the field. I can't help but cheer for him, his energy is contagious and his rushing ability is second to only Lamar Jackson.
21. Mac Jones
Jones is stepping into the perfect football situation for his best traits: elite awareness, pocket presence, accuracy, timing, and leadership abilities. Mac's coming off arguably the greatest season for a quarterback in College Football history. Not everybody has to have Josh Allen's legs to make an impact at the quarterback position in 2021 — look at who just won the Super Bowl last season.
22. Trey Lance
The highs are going to be as high as Lamar Jackson in 2019, and the lows are going to be as low as Mitchell Trubisky in 2019. He's basically going to be utilized as a much better, much younger version of Taysom Hill.
Tier 5: What Have You Done For Me Lately?
23. Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy would have every right to be ranked above his backup if he could just stay healthy. He's accurate, handsome, smart, and gorgeous, but he lacks that splash of athleticism that separates so many other perfectly average passers from the field.
24. Ben Roethlisberger
Big Beef is back once again in Pittsburgh. After getting stomped out by Cleveland in last year's playoffs, Roethlisberger looks to return to form by throwing a million slants to Diontae Johnson and occasionally handing the ball off to Najee Harris. He's perhaps the most underrated quarterback of a generation — someone who's 80% as smart at recognizing coverages and changing protections as Brady and Manning, 110% as hard to bring down as Cam Newton or Russell Wilson, and 75% as accurate as Aaron Rodgers.
25. Kirk Cousins
I genuinely don't even want to talk about this dude. Skip!
26. Jameis Winston
Jameis can see now, ladies and gentlemen. I hope that sentence put the fear of god into your favorite team's defensive coordinator, because it should. He may not have Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin, but he does have Sean Payton and Alvin Kamara. Smells like a 4,800-yard season to me.
27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Paul Schrader's new film The Card Counter is coming to theaters this weekend, and I'd just love to see a Fitzmagic cameo in it. Good football player, goofy dude. What else is there to say that hasn't been said about the bearded wonderman? Go Football Team.
Tier 6: The Prove-It Crew
28. Sam Darnold
I believe in Sam. I think he's an underrated athlete with above-average arm talent. The 24-year old Adam Gase graduate is moving onto bigger and better things with Joe Brady's Carolina offense in 2021. Darnold will have the best skill players of his career around him this season and doesn't have any more room for excuses. If you can't make an offense with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey work, then maybe you're destined to be a backup.
29. Gardner Minshew
So, let me get this straight, a quarterback who's thrown for 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with some of the worst weapons in the NFL over the last two seasons was traded for a conditional 6th round pick? That's the most Jacksonville thing I've ever heard. Minshew, despite some of his irreversible flaws, is a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL. He's routinely put the ball where it needs to go, and I'm honestly bewildered as to why Denver, Washington, or the New York Giants didn't give the former Washington State standout a shot. He's handedly the best backup quarterback in the league and his energy is seemingly contagious. I have nothing bad to say about the guy. He can ball.
30. Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Two Gloves is the starter in Denver — an offense littered with explosive weapons and big-framed pass-catchers like Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. Bridgewater's a complacent quarterback, and that sentence reads like erotica to Vic Fangio, who's had to deal with a sporadic performer in Lock since last season. Teddy will ease the tide in Denver and can potentially deliver them to a playoff berth this season.
T-31. Cam Newton and Carson Wentz
I really don't know what the difference between Cam Newton and Carson Wentz is in 2021. They're both burly quarterbacks who are most effective in designed run schemes but are too injury-prone to rely on for a full season. Their best days — both of which were absolutely brilliant — are far behind them.
33. Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton is, for better or worse, a very, very boring quarterback to watch play football. He's never going to lose you a game with several interceptions, but he's also never going to win you a game with a 67-yard drive during a 2-minute drill. His best years are behind him, and his best chance at winning a playoff game is on the sidelines.
Tier 7: Eye-Roll Emoji
34. Jared Goff
The most boring quarterback in the league (who is also three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance). I have few thoughts about Detroit's new signal-caller, so here's a picture of him with super dinky paws. Best of luck to you, Jared, for having to move from a title contender in Los Angeles to a team with a military sergeant for a head coach in Detroit.
35. Daniel Jones
The Daniel Jones experiment has roughly 17 games left in its lifespan. Jones is an ultra-athlete without any real outstanding pure quarterback traits. His accuracy is insulting; his pocket presence is so nonexistent that he fumbles the bag at least once per game. Will somebody please save Saquon from this wretched offense?
36. Drew Lock
Lock has the arm talent and the charisma, but he doesn't have much of anything else. He's a below-average athlete with bottom-tier processing skills and decision-making tendencies. Just because you can recite a Jeezy verse doesn't mean you're befit to run an NFL offense.
37. Taysom Hill
Taysom Hill is one of the most dynamic pure football talents of the 21st century. That doesn't mean that he has to play under center 50 times per game. He lacks the touch that a modern quarterback requires, specifically in New Orleans's pass-happy offense that features so many play designs that require the ability to loft a ball softly over the offensive line's heads to complete 6-yard mesh route completions to Marquez Callaway.
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