Divisional Round Preview
- Jan 11, 2020
- 4 min read
Here I am two days after having septoplasty surgery, loaded up on hydrocodone/acetaminophen, and ready to give you guys the divisional round preview. Here. We. Go.
Saturday January 11th:
Vikings @ 49ers 3:35 PM
Vikings:
Record: 10-6
Division: NFC North Runner Up
PPG: 25.4
PPG allowed: 18.9
Record against the spread: 10-7 49ers:
Record: 13-3
Division: NFC West Winner
PPG: 29.9
PPG Allowed: 19.4
Record against the spread: 9-6-1
First off we have the Vikings vs the 49ers and as we saw from last weekend, we may not be able to bet against the Vikings, well at least as 7 point underdogs. The Vikings were able to overcome playing in NOLA and beat one of the all time greats in Drew Brees last week. This week, they come into a matchup against a very good San Fransisco team again as 7 point underdogs. I'm a quick learner so Im not gonna bet against a team that's playing like these Vikings are right now. With that being said I also don't want to bet for them covering 7 points cause well, the 49ers really are that good and have a knack for dominating the TOP and putting up a decent amount of points. I think the 49ers should probably win but it also wouldn't surprise me if we saw the Vikings knock off another top seeded team. The safest bet here is over 44, the Niners have hit over 44 in 12 of their 16 games this year and with how both of these offenses and run games have been playing recently I would expect a whole lot of the same.
Gambling Pick: Over 44 Burbs Fan Poll: 49ers (67%)
Titans @ Ravens 7:15 PM
Titans:
Record: 9-7
Division: AFC South Runner Up
PPG: 25.1
PPG allowed: 20.7
Record against the spread: 9-7-1 Ravens:
Record: 14-2
Division: AFC North Winner
PPG: 33.2
PPG Allowed: 17.6
Record against the spread: 10-6
Right off the bat here you have to assume the Ravens are going to win. And that's the easy part, the hard part is figuring out by how much. The line is currently set at 9.5 or 10 on most books and covering 10 points in a playoff game isn't exactly easy, especially against a team that loves to keep games close but running the ball with their tank, Derrick Henry. With that being said I really like the Titans if you buy up to +10.5 so they are able to lose by a touchdown and field goal and still cover. I think banking on the Ravens to blow them out is too risky and the safer option here is to ride with Tannehill to cover those points.
Gambling Pick: Titans +10.5 @ -130 Burbs Fan Poll: Ravens (78%)
Sunday January 12th
Texans @ Chiefs 2:05 PM
Texans:
Record: 10-6
Division: AFC South Winner
PPG: 23.6
PPG allowed: 24.1
Record against the spread: 8-8-1 Chiefs:
Record: 12-4
Division: AFC West Winner
PPG: 28.2
PPG Allowed: 19.2
Record against the spread: 10-5-1
Another "wtf" line. I still expect the Chiefs to win but really 10 point favorites against a team that already beat them at home this season??? Even after factoring in the bye week and rest, that still doesn't make much sense to me. This is a very similar situation to the Ravens in that, I love the chiefs to win but Im not sure you can justify by 10 points. This might not be a popular pick but I'm not sure what else to take here. Im riding with the under in this game, the Chiefs defense has been playing amazing recently and Im not sure I even see the Chiefs putting up more than 30 points themselves. It'll be a fairly cold afternoon and I think we'll see a better, more competitive football game than both of these offenses lighting up the field.
Gambling Pick: Under 51 Burbs Fan Poll: Chiefs (79%)
Seahawks @ Packers 5:40 PM
Seahawks:
Record: 11-5
Division: NFC West Runner Up
PPG: 25.3
PPG allowed: 24.9
Record against the spread: 8-8-1 Packers:
Record: 13-3
Division: NFC North Winner
PPG: 23.5
PPG Allowed: 19.6
Record against the spread: 10-6
Here we go again, I swear whenever the Packers and Seahawks play its always a good game. I expect nothing less from when they meet each other this time around. I'm not sure why but I've been riding with the Seahawks most of the year and Im gonna continue to do so come this Sunday night. The line is perfect for them, I LOVE their chances to either lose by a field goal or win the game. The Packers won a ton of games this year but they really weren't all that impressive, if Aaron Jones and their run game gets slowed down I think they'll run into problems. I'm also choosing to follow the narrative of the Seahawks and 49ers having a third matchup this year, but this time with the chance to go to the Super Bowl. Im sorry Rodgers but this isn't your year, it's DANGERuss.
Gambling Pick: Seahawks +4.5 Burbs Fan Poll: Seahawks (59%)
TEASERS:
Since these lines are so weird, I love the strategy of doing a teaser with every game and adding 7 points to either the spread or the O/U on the game. It honestly seems so easy that you HAVE to do this. This is what I'm rocking with for the slate of games this weekend:
- 49ers PK
- Over 40 in Bal/Tenn
- Texans +17
- Seahawks +11.5
(+200 payout)
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